Kokomo, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

415
FXUS63 KLOT 250002
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
702 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rounds of showers and storms possible late tonight
  into Friday morning with a locally heavy rain, isolated flash
  flood, and gusty wind threat.

- A period of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms Friday night
  through Saturday may bring another round of torrential
  rainfall and the potential for flooding across portions of the
  area.

- Dangerous heat will build back across the area on Monday
  (possibly as early as Sunday), with periods of thunderstorms
  over or just north of the area Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Through Friday:

A strong to severe thunderstorm threat is expected to develop
across the forecast area this afternoon, mainly for east east of
about a La Salle to Waukegan line and points south, including
Chicago, and eventually into parts of northwest Indiana.
Seasonably strong 700 mb flow (MKX VWP continues to show near 45
knots which is likely sampling the maximum in wind response,
and this likely diminishes a bit with southward extent, with
KLOT showing closer to 25 to 30 kt). This fast mid-level flow,
combined with moderate instability with MLCAPEs pushing 2500
J/kg within a tropical airmass will support strong to severe
storms with a threat for localized damaging wind gusts. Hail
threat seems a bit more marginal given warm temps and lack of
steeper mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear. Rainfall
rates will be torrential as storms move overhead, but thankfully
it looks like storms will remain rather progressive, which
should limit the duration of heavy rates and the overall flood
threat. That said, localized flash flooding will be a concern
within any isolated training bands.

An outflow boundary should eventually get shoved south of the
region this evening, ending the severe threat from northwest to
southeast through 5 to 8 pm. Even if an outflow surges out of
the area, a richly-moist airmass will remain in place behind
it, with surface dewpoints forecast to remain in upper 60s/lower
70s and commensurately deep boundary layer moisture and PWATs
pushing over 2 inches south of I-80. While the specifics
regarding any low-level mass response related to any MCVs
remains unclear, most model guidance does suggest at least a
modest increase in 925-700 mb southwesterly flow overnight into
early tomorrow morning. This will result in persistent warm
advection/isentropic upglide which would support at least some
potential for showers and storms to "fester" through the evening
and overnight hours. Westerly cloud-bearing flow will be more
or less aligned with the main moist axis, with a continued
threat for some training convective cores. Currently, this
footprint looks to remain fairly limited, with highly localized
precipitation bullseyes, which precludes the issuance of any
targeted flood watch at this point.

Some guidance is also hinting at a remnant MCV associated with
convection developing this afternoon across northeast Kansas
ejecting northeastward and into central Illinois very late
tonight. Much lower confidence in this outcome, but this is yet
another feature which could act to locally boost overnight
storm coverage-- again mainly south of I-80. To the north of
I-80, and particularly west of the Fox Valley, some patchy fog
will be possible amidst light winds and low 70s dewpoints,
although some degree of mid/upper cloud cover may help limit
coverage.

The forecast for Friday remains unclear, as a large part of it
will depend on morning convective trends. A cold front will
push down the lake and out of Wisconsin through the day which
will inject notably cooler and somewhat less oppressive/humid
conditions to areas north of about I-80. Modest surface
convergence along this boundary may serve as a focus for renewed
shower and thunderstorm development from midday into the
afternoon as a plume of high PWAT air will remain in place. If
showers/storms and convective cloud debris are slow to erode
through the morning, this will commensurately tamp down on
afternoon storm chances. With such high BL moisture in place, it
won`t take much heating at all to breach convective temps, so
will continue to hold onto chances/scattered storms but have
focused chances predominantly south of I-80 for Friday
afternoon.

Forecast confidence continues to diminish Friday evening into
Saturday as influences of repeated days of convection and the
placement of any attendant MCVs/shortwave interactions becomes
more unclear. That said, guidance has indicated a somewhat
strong signal for a convective-augmented circulation
amalgamating with a neutral to positively-tilted shortwave which
is slated to press east across Iowa through Friday night into
Saturday morning. Some guidance depicts a fairly notable low-mid
level mass response with these features, which raises the
concern for an attendant flash flood threat as the main
reservoir of 2+" PWATs begins to meander across northern
Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Difficult to say where the main
forcing mechanisms track at this range, but the strongest
signal in the guidance suite remains across northern Illinois
into south/southwest Wisconsin.

Carlaw

A broad ridge will build toward the region Sunday into early
next week as a deep trough centered over Hudson Bay brings a
series of waves within WNW flow to just north area. Building
heat and humidity is likely on Monday with heat index values
reaching at least Heat Advisory criteria (105F). However, the
low-amplitude nature of the ridge and proximity to a wave
embedded within stronger mid-level W/WNW flow crossing the
northern Great Plains Sunday night could direct one of the MCSs
(potentially severe and long-lived) to just north of or even
over the CWA on Monday. Additional MCS episodes are possible
near or over the area Tuesday into Wednesday before cooler and
drier air settles across the western Great Lakes late next
week.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 0700 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Key Messages:

- Low confidence in SHRA/TSRA trends at the terminals through
  the period.

- North to northeast wind shift expected on Friday with a brief
  period of MVFR cigs possible

While a stray shower can`t be ruled out, the thunderstorm threat
has ended for the remainder of the evening. Focus now turns to
potential additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms
overnight through the day on Friday. At this time, confidence is
highest in precipitation occurring for areas south of I-80 and
the terminals; however, there is a signal that storms late
tonight into early Friday morning could end up far enough north
to impact MDW/GYY (~10-13Z timeframe). Accordingly, opted to
include PROB30s for TSRA at those sites. If an even more
northerly trend continues this may end up being needed at
ORD/DPA with later updates.

Heading into the daytime hours on Friday, winds are expected to
trend north and then turn northeast as a front moves into the
area. Confidence in this being paired with low-end MVFR has
decreased with this update so have opted to trend less
pessimistic but maintained MVFR CIGs in the morning for a brief
period.

There is a signal for spotty showers and storms potentially
developing within the vicinity of the front during the
afternoon, but the combination of low coverage and lower
confidence in timing and placement precludes a formal mention in
the TAFs. Later updates may warrant PROB30 or TEMPO groups
during the mid-late afternoon.

Heading into the Friday evening and overnight hours additional
waves of showers and storms will be possible, especially just
beyond the current TAF window. For now, have introduced PROB30s
for showers during the evening hours for the 30-hr TAF sites.

Lastly, a brief period of MVFR VSBYs can`t be fully ruled out at
RFD late tonight into early Friday morning. Will continue to
monitor trends and may introduce a TEMPO with later updates if
confidence increases.

Petr

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.

IN...None.

LM...None.

&&

$$

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